The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) says the country91裸聊视频檚 housing market continued to slow in September 91裸聊视频� a stark contrast from the flurried pace of sales the fall usually delivers.
The association said Friday that September sales were down 3.9 per cent compared with August, a slight increase in the current sales slowdown that began with the Bank of Canada91裸聊视频檚 first interest rate hike in March.
Compared with a year ago, home sales in September were down 32.2 per cent and about 12 per cent below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for the month.
Sherry Cooper, chief economist at Dominion Lending Centres, considered the numbers to be a sign of a housing correction, but noted it91裸聊视频檚 been an 91裸聊视频渦nusual91裸聊视频� correction because it91裸聊视频檚 91裸聊视频渙rderly91裸聊视频� and 91裸聊视频渘on-chaotic.91裸聊视频�
91裸聊视频淗ome sales have slowed, but so have new listings, so the price declines are more muted than we might have expected,91裸聊视频� she wrote in a note to investors.
91裸聊视频淲e91裸聊视频檝e seen little distressed selling, as most would-be sellers have lots of home equity and low mortgage rates 91裸聊视频� not anxious to buy new properties immediately. Moreover, with rents surging, most potential downsizers aren91裸聊视频檛 keen to make that trade-off.91裸聊视频�
The national slowdown CREA reported comes almost two weeks after real estate boards in many major cities, including Toronto and Vancouver, reported drops in sales and far fewer new listings than they expected for what is usually one of the busiest times of year.
Instead of the frenzy, they found few bidding wars and many sellers discouraged from listing their properties because they feared they wouldn91裸聊视频檛 fetch as much money as their neighbours did at the start of the year, when the market was moving at a torrid pace.
Robert Kavcic, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the conditions are causing a 91裸聊视频渟tandoff in the market.91裸聊视频�
91裸聊视频淏uyers can91裸聊视频檛 qualify for, or afford, early-year prices, and probably don91裸聊视频檛 want to catch falling knives anyway (how quickly the sentiment turned),91裸聊视频� he wrote in a note to investors.
91裸聊视频淏ut, sellers are able to hold out for better market conditions or, in the case of investors, put units on the rental market. In other words, the market is just not clearing right now 91裸聊视频� hence the lack of transaction volumes.91裸聊视频�
He noted that while the market balance is soft, there is no forced selling or dumping of properties, and added that he still sees the country91裸聊视频檚 new listings as 91裸聊视频渧ery well-behaved91裸聊视频� because the number of newly listed homes was down 0.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis in September.
On a year-over-year basis, new listings were down 1.5 per cent.
91裸聊视频淟istings fell for the third straight month, indicating that a softening economy and higher interest rates have yet to force a meaningful increase in supply,91裸聊视频� said James Orlando, a director and senior economist with TD Economics, in a note to investors.
91裸聊视频淚f anything, soft price conditions are keeping potential sellers on the sidelines.91裸聊视频�
The actual national average home price was $640,479 in September, down 6.6 per cent compared with the same month last year.
CREA said excluding the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Area, two of Canada91裸聊视频檚 most active and expensive housing markets, cuts more than $117,000 from the national average price.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national average home price totalled $650,172, a 1.2 per cent drop from August.
With the Bank of Canada expected to hike its policy rate even more, Orlando expected additional price pressure and forecast a 22 per cent decline in average home prices between the start of 2022 and 2023.
Meanwhile, Kavcic said, 91裸聊视频淲ith mortgage rates across the spectrum set to push above five per cent as the Bank of Canada tightens further, this downward price discovery is probably going to persist well into next year, and anyone holding out for better market conditions is going to need a stroke of luck.91裸聊视频�
91裸聊视频擳ara Deschamps, The Canadian Press
