Ask for a roast beef sandwich at an Arby91裸聊视频檚 drive-thru east of Los Angeles and you may be talking to Tori 91裸聊视频� an artificially intelligent voice assistant that will take your order and send it to the line cooks.
91裸聊视频淚t doesn91裸聊视频檛 call sick,91裸聊视频� says Amir Siddiqi, whose family installed the AI voice at its Arby91裸聊视频檚 franchise this year in Ontario, California. 91裸聊视频淚t doesn91裸聊视频檛 get corona. And the reliability of it is great.91裸聊视频�
The pandemic didn91裸聊视频檛 just threaten Americans91裸聊视频� health when it slammed the U.S. in 2020 91裸聊视频� it may also have posed a long-term threat to many of their jobs. Faced with worker shortages and higher labor costs, companies are starting to automate service sector jobs that economists once considered safe, assuming that machines couldn91裸聊视频檛 easily provide the human contact they believed customers would demand.
Past experience suggests that such automation waves eventually create more jobs than they destroy, but that they also disproportionately wipe out less skilled jobs that many low-income workers depend on. Resulting growing pains for the U.S. economy could be severe.
If not for the pandemic, Siddiqi probably wouldn91裸聊视频檛 have bothered investing in new technology that could alienate existing employees and some customers. But it91裸聊视频檚 gone smoothly, he says: 91裸聊视频淏asically, there91裸聊视频檚 less people needed but those folks are now working in the kitchen and other areas.91裸聊视频�
Ideally, automation can redeploy workers into better and more interesting work, so long as they can get the appropriate technical training, says Johannes Moenius, an economist at the University of Redlands. But although that91裸聊视频檚 happening now, it91裸聊视频檚 not moving quickly enough, he says.
Worse, an entire class of service jobs created when manufacturing began to deploy more automation may now be at risk. 91裸聊视频淭he robots escaped the manufacturing sector and went into the much larger service sector,91裸聊视频� he says. 91裸聊视频淚 regarded contact jobs as safe. I was completely taken by surprise.91裸聊视频�
Improvements in robot technology allow machines to do many tasks that previously required people 91裸聊视频� tossing pizza dough, transporting hospital linens, inspecting gauges, sorting goods. The pandemic accelerated their adoption. Robots, after all, can91裸聊视频檛 get sick or spread disease. Nor do they request time off to handle unexpected childcare emergencies.
Economists at the International Monetary Fund found that past pandemics had encouraged firms to invest in machines in ways that could boost productivity 91裸聊视频� but also kill low-skill jobs. 91裸聊视频淥ur results suggest that the concerns about the rise of the robots amid the COVID-19 pandemic seem justified,91裸聊视频�91裸聊视频� they wrote in a January paper.
The consequences could fall most heavily on the less-educated women who disproportionately occupy the low- and mid-wage jobs most exposed to automation 91裸聊视频� and to viral infections. Those jobs include salesclerks, administrative assistants, cashiers and aides in hospitals and those who take care of the sick and elderly.
Employers seem eager to bring on the machines. A survey last year by the nonprofit World Economic Forum found that 43% of companies planned to reduce their workforce as a result of new technology. Since the second quarter of 2020, business investment in equipment has grown 26%, more than twice as fast as the overall economy.
The fastest growth is expected in the roving machines that clean the floors of supermarkets, hospitals and warehouses, according to the International Federation of Robotics, a trade group. The same group also expects an uptick in sales of robots that provide shoppers with information or deliver room service orders in hotels.
Restaurants have been among the most visible robot adopters. In late August, for instance, the salad chain Sweetgreen announced it was buying kitchen robotics startup Spyce, which makes a machine that cooks up vegetables and grains and spouts them into bowls.
It91裸聊视频檚 not just robots, either 91裸聊视频� software and AI-powered services are on the rise as well. Starbucks has been automating the behind-the-scenes work of keeping track of a store91裸聊视频檚 inventory. More stores have moved to self-checkout.
Scott Lawton, CEO of the Arlington, Virginia-based restaurant chain Bartaco, was having trouble last fall getting servers to return to his restaurants when they reopened during the pandemic.
So he decided to do without them. With the help of a software firm, his company developed an online ordering and payment system customers could use over their phones. Diners now simply scan a barcode at the center of each table to access a menu and order their food without waiting for a server. Workers bring food and drinks to their tables. And when they91裸聊视频檙e done eating, customers pay over their phones and leave.
The innovation has shaved the number of staff, but workers aren91裸聊视频檛 necessarily worse off. Each Bartaco location 91裸聊视频� there are 21 91裸聊视频� now has up to eight assistant managers, roughly double the pre-pandemic total. Many are former servers, and they roam among the tables to make sure everyone has what they need. They are paid annual salaries starting at $55,000 rather than hourly wages.
Tips are now shared among all the other employees, including dishwashers, who now typically earn $20 an hour or more, far higher than their pre-pandemic pay. 91裸聊视频淲e don91裸聊视频檛 have the labor shortages that you91裸聊视频檙e reading about on the news,91裸聊视频� Lawton says.
The uptick in automation has not stalled a stunning rebound in the U.S. jobs market 91裸聊视频� at least so far.
The U.S. economy lost a staggering 22.4 million jobs in March and April 2020, when the pandemic gale hit the U.S. Hiring has since bounced back briskly: Employers have brought back 17 million jobs since April 2020. In June, they posted a record 10.1 million job openings and are complaining that they can91裸聊视频檛 find enough workers.
Behind the hiring boom is a surge in spending by consumers, many of whom got through the crisis in unexpectedly good shape financially 91裸聊视频� thanks to both federal relief checks and, in many cases, savings accumulated by working from home and skipping the daily commute.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody91裸聊视频檚 Analytics, expects employers are likely to be scrambling for workers for a long time.
For one thing, many Americans are taking their time returning to work 91裸聊视频� some because they91裸聊视频檙e still worried about COVID-19 health risks and childcare problems, others because of generous federal unemployment benefits, set to expire nationwide Sept. 6.
In addition, large numbers of Baby Boom workers are retiring. 91裸聊视频淭he labor market is going to be very, very tight for the foreseeable future,91裸聊视频� Zandi says.
For now, the short-term benefits of the economic snapback are overwhelming any job losses from automation, whose effects tend to show up gradually over a period of years. That may not last. Last year, researchers at the University of Zurich and University of British Columbia found that the so-called jobless recoveries of the past 35 years, in which economic output rebounded from recessions faster than employment, could be explained by the loss of jobs vulnerable to automation.
Despite strong hiring since the middle of last year, the U.S. economy is still 5.3 million jobs short of what it had in February 2020. And Lydia Boussour, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, calculated last month that 40% of the missing jobs are vulnerable to automation, especially those in food preparation, retail sales and manufacturing.
Some economists worry that automation pushes workers into lower-paid positions. Daron Acemoglu, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University estimated in June that up to 70% of the stagnation in U.S. wages between 1980 and 2016 could be explained by machines replacing humans doing routine tasks.
91裸聊视频淢any of the jobs that get automated were at the middle of the skill distribution,91裸聊视频� Acemoglu says. 91裸聊视频淭hey don91裸聊视频檛 exist anymore, and the workers that used to perform them are now doing lower-skill jobs.91裸聊视频�
Matt O91裸聊视频檅rien And Paul Wiseman, The Associated Press
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