The Canadian economy entered 2018 on an unexpectedly impressive run. The country begins 2019 on a healthy note but signs of weakness have raised a key question: how long until the good times come to an end?

Through much of 2018, Canada91裸聊视频檚 unemployment rate hovered near a 40-year low and job-creation remained strong as the evidence pointed to an economy going at close to full tilt.

The handoff was a good one, too 91裸聊视频� the country had posted three-per-cent growth for all of 2017, largely thanks to strong household spending. We91裸聊视频檒l have to wait a little for the final numbers but forecasters say 2018 has likely delivered still-sturdy growth of about two per cent.

But as 2019 approaches, there are worries the solid economic expansion is starting to show its age.

Last month, the federal government91裸聊视频檚 fall economic statement projected two-per-cent growth again for 2019, but many predict the number will likely come in lower following a recent drop in oil prices.

In addition to the pullback in crude prices, experts point to jitters in the financial markets, predictions the American economy 91裸聊视频� a key contributor to Canadian growth 91裸聊视频� will start to cool off and the United Kingdom91裸聊视频檚 difficult divorce from the European Union, which could ripple across the global economy.

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There91裸聊视频檚 also potential for an even bigger threat: an escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

On trade, Canada made it through a year filled with significant uncertainty, including the difficult negotiation and signing of an update to the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Many of the trade unknowns, however, will carry over into the new year. The road to NAFTA 2.091裸聊视频檚 ratification could bring more drama, punishing American steel and aluminum tariffs remain in place and the clash of superpowers between Canada91裸聊视频檚 two biggest trading partners continues to play out.

91裸聊视频淭here are always reflections around the cyclical downturns that happen and, as I91裸聊视频檝e said, the impacts of a trade war between China and the United States could have significant impacts on the global economy 91裸聊视频� negative impacts on the global economy,91裸聊视频� Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press.

91裸聊视频淲e have to make sure that we are prepared for rough waters if we encounter them.91裸聊视频�

In Canada, potential trouble spots include the combination of high household debt, rising interest rates and slowing wage growth that91裸聊视频檚 been 91裸聊视频渢errible91裸聊视频� for about half a year following a good pickup early in 2018, says Matt Stewart, director of economics for The Conference Board of Canada.

Higher interest rates, Stewart added, have delivered a hit to household spending, which has been the primary driver of Canada91裸聊视频檚 good economic fortunes.

91裸聊视频淚t91裸聊视频檚 been a long time since we91裸聊视频檝e had a recession,91裸聊视频� Stewart said. 91裸聊视频淎s of yet, I think most of the news is still positive, but there is a growing amount of risks.91裸聊视频�

With overburdened consumers expected to take a breather, business investment is seen as the next critical source of growth. But Stewart said the transition has yet to materialize because investment has underperformed, likely due to competitiveness concerns. Businesses aren91裸聊视频檛 sure whether Canada91裸聊视频檚 the best place to put their money.

In an effort to boost investment, Ottawa announced billions of dollars worth of corporate tax incentives in its fall statement. Taxpayers will have to wait and see if the federal changes will be enough to encourage more companies to invest in Canada.

Craig Alexander, chief economist of Deloitte, said the economy will continue to have healthy growth in 2019, but notes it91裸聊视频檚 due for some moderation.

91裸聊视频淲e are in the late stages of a business cycle,91裸聊视频� he said. 91裸聊视频淭hat doesn91裸聊视频檛 mean that a recession is around the corner, but we need to recognize that we91裸聊视频檙e 10 years into an economic recovery, expansion. Business cycles are typically eight to 10 years long.91裸聊视频�

Alexander added markets are probably overreacting to the possibility that another downturn could be almost upon us. He thinks the more likely case is that growth will continue to slow.

The economy91裸聊视频檚 evolution will have different impacts depending where one lives, he added.

For example, the energy sector faces big challenges.

Part of it comes from the recent plunge in oil prices, but there91裸聊视频檚 also been an extra discount on the price of western Canadian crude caused by transportation bottlenecks out of the Alberta oilpatch.

91裸聊视频淭his is sad news for Alberta,91裸聊视频� Alexander said. 91裸聊视频淭hey91裸聊视频檝e only barely recovered from the last recession.91裸聊视频�

Ottawa offered assistance this month in the form of a $1.6-billion aid package to support oil and gas companies.

Alberta, however, wants federal help to move its oil to new markets.

Ontario91裸聊视频檚 industrial sector will also face a big hurdle in 2019. General Motors has announced plans to shutter its plant in Oshawa later in the year, which will put 2,500 people out of work and inflict economic pain on the region.

Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter said Canada already took a small step back in 2018 91裸聊视频� and he expects growth to slow further.

91裸聊视频淛ust looking at financial markets there91裸聊视频檚 obviously a lot of concern that we are getting to a late stage of the (economic) cycle,91裸聊视频� Porter said. 91裸聊视频淲e don91裸聊视频檛 believe that recession risks are especially high at this point, but we do think the North American economy will cool in 2019.91裸聊视频�

Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press

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