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Loonie hits four-month low as Bank of Canada holds key interest rate

Weak loonie reflective of the U.S.interest rate aggression hike while Bank of Canada holds steady
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The value of the loonie is at a four-month low compared with the U.S. dollar, but experts say Canadian consumers shouldn91裸聊视频檛 expect their wallets to take a major hit. Canadian dollars are pictured in Vancouver, Sept. 22, 2011.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward

The value of the loonie hit a four-month low compared with the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, but some experts say Canadian consumers shouldn91裸聊视频檛 expect their wallets to take a major hit.

The Canadian dollar traded at 72.54 U.S. cents on Wednesday, the lowest it has been since October.

CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld said the weak loonie is reflective of the U.S. Federal Reserve getting more aggressive on interest rate hikes while the Bank of Canada holds its key rate steady for the first time in a year.

While import cost hikes could lead to higher prices for items such as groceries, he said the effect on Canada91裸聊视频檚 inflation rate should be minimal.

91裸聊视频淭his is pretty small potatoes in terms of the inflation rate. We91裸聊视频檙e talking a decimal place here or there,91裸聊视频 Shenfeld said.

91裸聊视频淓ven if something is an imported good, the import price doesn91裸聊视频檛 tend to pass on all the exchange rate moves. It tends to show up in things like fresh fruits and vegetables, but if you91裸聊视频檙e talking about a T-shirt at the department store, it was probably made outside North America.91裸聊视频

The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 4.5 per cent Wednesday based on its assessment of recent economic data. Shenfeld noted the central bank signalled it won91裸聊视频檛 respond to a modest further weakening of the currency.

91裸聊视频淕iven the choice, I think Canadians would be happier not to see another rate hike than to protect the Canadian dollar from another cent or two slide,91裸聊视频 he said.

Darcy Briggs, senior vice-president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Canada, said he expected the loonie would continue to trade soft until the U.S. Federal Reserve reaches the end of its tightening cycle.

91裸聊视频淭hat91裸聊视频檚 the thing with currencies. They make some pretty dramatic moves pretty [quickly],91裸聊视频 he said. 91裸聊视频淭hey91裸聊视频檒l kind of lay in limbo and then volatility spikes.91裸聊视频

Briggs said that could make life more expensive in the meantime.

91裸聊视频淚f the Canadian dollar is depreciating, and it91裸聊视频檚 depreciating against the number of currency baskets, then any products that we import, by definition, will be more expensive because we91裸聊视频檙e paying it with a cheaper Canadian dollar,91裸聊视频 he said.

91裸聊视频淭hat will take a bite out of consumption and it91裸聊视频檒l actually factor into inflation.91裸聊视频

University of Toronto economist Angelo Melino predicted the divergence between the Canadian and U.S. interest rates to last at least 10 months.

But while the weakened loonie could make products denominated in U.S. dollars, more expensive, Melino said the effect on the Canadian inflation rate won91裸聊视频檛 be major.

91裸聊视频淭hey91裸聊视频檙e going to matter for specific goods and services,91裸聊视频 he said.

91裸聊视频淚f you91裸聊视频檙e planning to go to Florida for vacation, or Disneyland, you91裸聊视频檙e going to see it right away.91裸聊视频

Should the Canadian dollar remain low for an extended period, Melino said that could create a shift in demand away from U.S goods and services toward Canadian ones.

91裸聊视频淏oth Canadians and Americans will be buying goods and services produced in Canada and that tends to be good for Canadian output, but also inflationary,91裸聊视频 he said.

91裸聊视频擲ammy Hudes, The Canadian Press





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