Canada91裸聊视频檚 biggest banks are set to report on what has traditionally been the strongest quarter of the year, but market volatility and slower mortgage growth during the period could weigh on their latest results.

North American markets saw a sharp selloff at the end of 2018 amid a trade skirmish between China and the U.S. and political uncertainty with a partial shutdown south of the border, potentially hampering the banks91裸聊视频� related earnings.

91裸聊视频淲ith markets falling through much of the fall and recovering through much of the winter so far91裸聊视频� Everything from mutual fund fees to underwriting revenues will likely have been down,91裸聊视频� CIBC analyst Robert Sedran said in a note to clients.

91裸聊视频淭rading, as ever, is a wildcard but we do expect a sequential decline as well.91裸聊视频�

The Royal Bank of Canada is the first lender to report its results for the three-month period ended Jan. 31 on Friday, followed by the Bank of Montreal and the Bank of Nova Scotia on Feb 26. National Bank of Canada reports its latest quarterly earnings on Feb. 27, followed by the Toronto Dominion Bank and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce on Feb. 28.

During the earnings conference calls to discuss the banks91裸聊视频� results during the previous quarter, lenders expressed optimism for the coming financial year but some said the bumpy stock-market ride could add downward pressure.

91裸聊视频淲e expect to see some weakness year-over-year in our wealth and wholesale businesses, given the recent market volatility91裸聊视频� However, our above-average net sales and strong investment banking pipeline will position us well for growth throughout the year,91裸聊视频� said RBC91裸聊视频檚 chief financial officer Rod Bolger on a conference call with analysts in late November.

Investors91裸聊视频� concerns about the strength of the Big Six banks market-related earnings in the latest quarter are 91裸聊视频渙verstated91裸聊视频� given the market rally in January, said Meny Grauman, an analyst with Cormark Securities.

91裸聊视频淭he reality is that market-related revenues should have actually held up better than most investors91裸聊视频� fear, especially in the wealth business where the Canadian banks91裸聊视频� fiscal calendar should have helped as the Q1 numbers would have captured a very healthy stock market rally in January,91裸聊视频� he said in a note to clients.

The financial first quarter has historically been the most robust period for capital markets and trading revenues and 91裸聊视频渃ould save the day91裸聊视频� for the banks, said John Aiken, an analyst with Barclays in Toronto. Over the past nine years, Canadian banks have seen an uptick in capital markets revenues in the first quarter, up an average of 15 per cent from the previous quarter, he added.

While the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly challenging, the banks are expected to continue benefiting from the five central bank interest rate hikes since July 2017, Aiken added in his note to clients.

Those hikes have padded the banks91裸聊视频� net interest margins, which is the difference between the money they earn on the loans they make and what they pay out to savers.

91裸聊视频淲e anticipate NIMs will remain a positive story for much of 2019,91裸聊视频� Aiken said. 91裸聊视频淭hat said, amidst rising rates, the slowdown in household and mortgage credit continues, with annual residential mortgage credit growth of 3.1 per cent in December, marking the slowest rate since May 2001 and roughly half of the growth rate from two years ago.91裸聊视频�

Residential home sales in Canada in January were the weakest since 2015, down four per cent from the previous year, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. In December, home sales slipped for the fourth month in a row to cap off the weakest annual sales since 2012.

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CREA attributed the drop in December to a rush of buyers at the end of 2017 who moved to lock in home loans before a new stress test for uninsured mortgages took effect on Jan. 1, 2018.

In turn, Canadian banks also saw a surge of mortgage lending during the financial first quarter one year ago 91裸聊视频� setting a high bar for comparison for quarterly results this year.

Some banks reported increases in mortgage originations of as much as 20 per cent during the first half of fiscal 2018, said Gabriel Dechaine, an analyst with National Bank of Canada Financial Markets.

91裸聊视频�91裸聊视频楶ull forward91裸聊视频� uninsured mortgage originations were surprisingly high91裸聊视频� As such, we could see a larger-than-expected slowdown in new originations during H1/19, simply due to the 91裸聊视频榯ough comps91裸聊视频� effect,91裸聊视频� he said in a note to clients.

Armina Ligaya, The Canadian Press

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