Federal public servants warned the government two years ago that large increases to immigration could affect housing affordability and services, internal documents show.
Documents obtained by The Canadian Press through an access-to-information request show Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada analyzed the potential effects immigration would have on the economy, housing and services, as it prepared its immigration targets for 2023 to 2025.
The deputy minister, among others, was warned in 2022 that housing construction had not kept up with the pace of population growth.
91裸聊视频淚n Canada, population growth has exceeded the growth in available housing units,91裸聊视频� one slide deck reads.
91裸聊视频淎s the federal authority charged with managing immigration, IRCC policy-makers must understand the misalignment between population growth and housing supply, and how permanent and temporary immigration shapes population growth.91裸聊视频�
Immigration accounts for nearly all population growth in Canada, given the country91裸聊视频檚 aging demographics.
The federal government ultimately decided to increase the number of permanent residents Canada welcomes each year to 500,000 in 2025, a decision that drew considerable attention and scrutiny. It means in 2025, Canada will welcome nearly twice as many permanent residents as it did in 2015.
The document reveals federal public servants were well aware of the pressures high population growth would have on housing and services.
91裸聊视频淩apid increases put pressure on health care and affordable housing,91裸聊视频� public servants warned. 91裸聊视频淪ettlement and resettlement service providers are expressing short-term strain due to labour market conditions, increased levels and the Afghanistan and Ukraine initiatives.91裸聊视频�
Housing affordability has now become a political liability for the Liberal government. The Conservatives have gained considerable momentum over the last year as the party pounces on affordability issues, while avoiding the issue of immigration in particular. These pressures have forced the Liberal government to refocus its efforts on housing policy and begin to address the spike in international students with new rules.
Recent data shows Canada91裸聊视频檚 pace of population growth continues to set records as the country brings in a historic number of temporary residents as well, largely through international student and temporary foreign worker programs.
The country91裸聊视频檚 population grew by more than 430,000 during the third quarter of 2023, marking the fastest pace of population growth in any quarter since 1957.
Experts spanning from Bay Street to academic institutions have warned that Canada91裸聊视频檚 strong population growth is eroding housing affordability, as demand outpaces supply.
The Bank of Canada has offered similar analysis. Deputy governor Toni Gravelle delivered a speech in December warning that strong population growth is pushing rents and home prices upward.
Public opinion polls also show Canadians are increasingly concerned about the pressure immigration is putting on services, infrastructure and housing, leading to waning support for high immigration.
The Liberal government has defended its immigration policy decisions, arguing that immigrants help bring about economic prosperity and help with the country91裸聊视频檚 demographics as the population ages.
However, amid the heightened scrutiny of the Liberal government91裸聊视频檚 immigration policy, Immigration Minister Marc Miller levelled out the annual target at 500,000 permanent residents for 2026.
The documents from 2022 note that Canada91裸聊视频檚 immigration targets have exceeded the recommendations of some experts, including the Century Initiative, an organization that advocates for growing the country91裸聊视频檚 population to 100 million by the end of the century.
However, attention is now shifting from these targets to the steep rise in non-permanent residents. Between July and October, about three-quarters of Canada91裸聊视频檚 population growth came from temporary residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers.
That trend is raising alarms about the increase in businesses91裸聊视频� reliance on low-wage migrant workers and the luring of international student byshady post-secondary institutions.
Mikal Skuterud, an economics professor at the University of Waterloo who specializes in immigration policy, says the federal government appears to have 91裸聊视频渓ost control91裸聊视频� of temporary migration flows.
Unlike the annual targets for permanent residents, the number of temporary residents is dictated by demand for migrant workers and international students.
He also notes there is a link between the targets for permanent residents and the flow of temporary residents.
91裸聊视频淭o the extent that you increase permanent numbers, and migrants realize the way you get a PR is to come here as a temporary resident 91裸聊视频� then migrants are incentivized to kind of come and try their luck,91裸聊视频� he said.
Skuterud, who has been a vocal critic of the federal government91裸聊视频檚 immigration policy, says the benefits of high immigration have been exaggerated by the Liberals.
He said that starting around 2015, when the Liberal government was first elected, a narrative developed in Canada that 91裸聊视频渋mmigration was kind of a solution to Canada91裸聊视频檚 economic growth problems.91裸聊视频�
And while the professor says that narrative is one that people like to believe, he notes higher immigration does little when it comes to increasing living standards, as measured by real GDP per capita.
Public servants at IRCC are in agreement, the released documents suggest.
91裸聊视频淚ncreasing the working age population can have a positive impact on gross domestic product, but little effect on GDP per capita,91裸聊视频� public servants noted.
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