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Canada watching anxiously as U.S. decides between Harris and Trump

91ƵBe ready for both91Ƶ: Canadians prepare for any outcome as Americans head to the polls
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Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump shakes hands with Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris during an ABC News presidential debate at the National Constitution Center, Tuesday, Sept.10, 2024, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Millions of Americans are heading to the polls Tuesday as a chaotic presidential campaign reaches its peak in a deeply divided United States, where voters in only a handful of battleground states will choose the country91Ƶs path forward.

Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump have presented starkly different visions for America91Ƶs future, but polling shows the two remain in a dead heat.

91ƵAny election in the U.S. is important and impactful for us,91Ƶ said Kirsten Hillman, Canada91Ƶs ambassador to the United States. 91ƵThey are central to our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner.91Ƶ

Hillman has been travelling across America meeting with key members of the Republican and Democrat teams to prepare for any outcome. On election night, after her embassy duties are finished, she91Ƶll be watching the results with her husband and friends 91Ƶ and said she91Ƶs leaning toward ordering pizza.

While the gathering with loved ones may bring solace amid the anxious anticipation, Hillman knows more than anyone the immense stakes at play for Canada.

91ƵWhoever is sitting in the Oval Office and populating Congress is making decisions that may affect Canada, either decisions that provide us with opportunities or decisions that pose challenges for us,91Ƶ Hillman said. 91ƵThe job is to be ready for both.91Ƶ

A shared history and 8,891-kilometre border will not shield Canada from the election91Ƶs outcome. Both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, but experts warn if the Republican leader prevails the relationship between the neighbours could be much more difficult.

91ƵTrump and some of the key people around him, including (former trade representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to stick it to Canada,91Ƶ said Fen Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Trump91Ƶs first administration demonstrated how vulnerable Canada is to America91Ƶs whims when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Negotiating its successor, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, was a key test for Ottawa after Trump91Ƶs victory. Whoever takes over the White House this time will be in charge during the agreement91Ƶs review in 2026.

A cause for concern in Canada and around the world is Trump91Ƶs proposed 10 per cent across-the-board tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report suggests those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

American economists warned Trump91Ƶs plan could cause inflation, and possibly a recession, which would almost certainly have ripple effects in Canada. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S and trade comprises 60 per cent of Canada91Ƶs gross domestic product.

91ƵWhen the American economy is growing, it91Ƶs generally good for us,91Ƶ Hampson said. 91ƵIf they take a deep dive under Trump 91Ƶ that will have a knock-on effect on us, on top of tariffs.91Ƶ

The election outcome could also redefine America91Ƶs role in the world. Trump is critical of giving aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, has attacked the United Nations and repeatedly claimed he would not defend NATO members that don91Ƶt meet defence spending targets 91Ƶ something Canada is not doing, and won91Ƶt for years.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to meet the target of spending the equivalent of two per cent of GDP on defence by 2032.

Trump91Ƶs first tenure also saw the Republican leader withdraw from the Paris Agreement, an international treaty to cut greenhouse gases.

Hampson said the Republicans91Ƶ push against international institutions and treaties will have 91Ƶa profound impact91Ƶ on Canada, but also key allies and the world order itself.

If Harris wins, it91Ƶs widely expected that there will be more normal relations based on established patterns and rules, but it does not necessarily mean smooth sailing for Canada.

It91Ƶs expected the vice-president would follow the path laid by President Joe Biden on foreign policy and trade with Canada.

Biden signed an executive order to revoke the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transferred oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration91Ƶs Buy America procurement rules also caused concern in Canada.

Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and the executive director of the Future Borders Coalition, said she expects a Harris administration would continue nationalist and protectionist policies.

Harris has spoken on the campaign trail about the fact that she voted against the trilateral trade agreement and said she will return manufacturing jobs to the U.S.

It91Ƶs a great slogan and bumper sticker, Dawson said, 91Ƶbut it91Ƶs terrible if you are Canada.91Ƶ

Dawson warned Trudeau91Ƶs team during a cabinet retreat in August that no matter who is the next president, Canada will have to work harder to maintain existing benefits of integrated trade and travel.

Meanwhile, many Americans are caught between anxiety and excitement. Sixteen-year-old Gavin Kupcho attended his first Trump rally in Wisconsin last week.

91ƵI91Ƶve never felt more enthused in my life,91Ƶ he said. 91ƵI need lower gas prices since I just got my licence.91Ƶ

The situation feels more dire for Antonio White, who travelled from Miami to Milwaukee to knock on doors for Harris in the crucial battleground state. The 63-year-old said America is at a critical point 91Ƶwhere people are no longer recognizing fascism when they see it.91Ƶ

91ƵThis is an election we must win for the sanctity of everybody, for the country itself,91Ƶ he said.

91ƵDemocracy is on the ballot this time.91Ƶ





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