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CN says railway can withstand Trump tariffs, expects to rebound in 2025

Canada91裸聊视频檚 largest railway saw fourth-quarter profits fall by nearly half year over year
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Train cars are seen in an aerial view as workers repair tracks at Canadian National Rail91裸聊视频檚 Thornton Yard, in Surrey, B.C., on Thursday, August 22, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darryl Dyck

After a tough 2024 that saw profits drop 21 per cent, the head of Canadian National Railway Co. said the new year is looking brighter 91裸聊视频 even if U.S. President Donald Trump follows through on his tariff threat.

91裸聊视频淲hile there may be some impact, it won91裸聊视频檛 be so significant or prolonged as to cause a recession in Canada or significant inflationary impacts in the U.S.,91裸聊视频 CEO Tracy Robinson said on Thursday.

91裸聊视频淲e are assuming a modest lift in the economy.91裸聊视频

That forecast reflects an optimistic view. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada projected that 25 per cent tariffs across the board by the U.S. could bring on a recession and boost inflation within the first year of a trade war.

That would also be a harsh followup to a bumpy year for CN.

The country91裸聊视频檚 largest railway saw fourth-quarter profits fall by nearly half year over year amid lower volumes across virtually all freight segments.

The three-month period saw work stoppages in November at the three largest ports in Canada 91裸聊视频 Vancouver, Montreal and Prince Rupert, B.C. 91裸聊视频 that halted container traffic. A long stretch of cold weather struck in December, slowing train speeds.

91裸聊视频淲inter came early,91裸聊视频 said chief field operating officer Derek Taylor.

The disruptions also followed a devastating July wildfire in Jasper, Alta.91裸聊视频 CN91裸聊视频檚 busiest corridor runs through the mountain town 91裸聊视频 and a massive work stoppage by workers at CN and rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. in August.

91裸聊视频2024 was a hell of a year,91裸聊视频 Robinson said. 91裸聊视频淲e are happy to have it behind us.

91裸聊视频淲e didn91裸聊视频檛 deliver growth to the bottom line. We91裸聊视频檙e not happy with that,91裸聊视频 she added.

Revenues from container shipments 91裸聊视频 CN91裸聊视频檚 biggest segment annually 91裸聊视频 sagged eight per cent year-over-year last quarter due to the disruptions as well as lower consumer demand. But proceeds from its two other big categories 91裸聊视频 grain and fertilizers along with petroleum and chemicals 91裸聊视频 increased four per cent and one per cent, respectively.

The railroad operator notched a record year for grain volumes due largely to big wheat and canola hauls.

The company predicted a bounceback this year in areas ranging from containers to chemicals and plastics.

91裸聊视频淭he big question is the tariffs,91裸聊视频 Jeff Windau, an analyst at Edward Jones, said in an interview.

91裸聊视频淭hat91裸聊视频檚 the key item which is going to drive 2025 results,91裸聊视频 he said. 91裸聊视频淰olume is the key for them, and depending on whether tariffs are implemented and by how much, their volumes could see a hit.91裸聊视频

Windau added that CN expectations of solid growth in the coming year were 91裸聊视频渞easonable,91裸聊视频 but stressed that crucial factors remain unknown.

On Thursday, the company forecasted growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share of between 10 and 15 per cent for 2025 alongside $3.4 billion of capital investment. It also announced a five per cent dividend increase.

91裸聊视频淲ith the bar now reset after a difficult 2024, much hinges on hitting the new targets provided. Key is that we believe management has the right operating team in place to achieve just that,91裸聊视频 said RBC Dominion Securities analyst Walter Spracklin.

Net income for the three months ended Dec. 31 dropped 46 per cent to $1.15 billion, down from $2.13 billion in the same period the year before, CN reported.

Fourth-quarter revenue dipped three per cent to $4.36 billion from $4.47 billion a year earlier, the Montreal-based company said.

On an adjusted basis, diluted earnings per share decreased 10 per cent to $1.82 from $2.02 per share, below analysts91裸聊视频 expectations of $1.96 per share, according to financial markets data firm Refinitiv.





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