Hurricane Otis turned from mild to monster in record time, and scientists are struggling to figure out how 91裸聊视频� and why they didn91裸聊视频檛 see it coming.
Usually reliable computer models and the forecasters who use them didn91裸聊视频檛 predict Otis91裸聊视频� explosive intensification, creating a nightmare scenario of an unexpectedly strong storm striking at night. At least 27 people are dead and four missing in the destruction along Mexico91裸聊视频檚 Pacific coast, with devastation that extends for miles.
All this after Acapulco was told to expect a tropical storm just below hurricane strength. Just 24 hours later, Otis blasted ashore with 165 mph (266 kph) winds, the strongest landfall of any East Pacific hurricane.
In just 12 hours, Otis91裸聊视频� strength more than doubled from 70 mph (113 kph) winds to 160 mph (257 kph), also a record, as it neared the coast. And it got even stronger before it struck. Storms typically gain or lose a few miles per hour in 12 hours, though some outliers gain 30 to 50 mph (48 to 80 kph) in a day.
What happened with Otis was just plain nuts, said University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. But it coincides with a documented trend of because of warmer water connected to , scientists said.
Five different hurricane experts told The Associated Press they weren91裸聊视频檛 quite sure what set Otis off and why it wasn91裸聊视频檛 predicted, especially since meteorologists have been dramatically improving their intensity forecasts in recent years.
91裸聊视频淭he models completely blew it,91裸聊视频� said MIT atmospheric sciences professor Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert.
Experts point to lack of data on the storm and its surroundings and just not completely understanding what makes a storm act like it91裸聊视频檚 on steroids.
And it really matters because in Otis91裸聊视频� case, the storm was coming ashore when it muscled up.
91裸聊视频淚t91裸聊视频檚 one thing to have a Category 5 hurricane make landfall somewhere when you91裸聊视频檙e expecting it,91裸聊视频� McNoldy said. 91裸聊视频淏ut to have it happen when you91裸聊视频檙e not expecting anything to happen is truly a nightmare.91裸聊视频�
For example, McNoldy, who lives in Miami, said a tropical storm forecast would prompt him to 91裸聊视频渄o things like move some lightweight furniture in and take down wind chimes and things like that. That91裸聊视频檚 about it. You91裸聊视频檙e not preparing for a Category 5 hurricane.91裸聊视频�
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said 91裸聊视频渢hat91裸聊视频檚 a very bad scenario, populated area, rapid intensification very close to landfall, a change in the expectations about the impacts that91裸聊视频檚 happening on a time scale that doesn91裸聊视频檛 give people a lot of time to respond.91裸聊视频�
Brennan said Otis91裸聊视频� unforeseen buildup was because 91裸聊视频渋t found a much more favorable environment than we were anticipating.91裸聊视频� He said one part was warm water, another was that the winds 91裸聊视频� moving in the right direction and at the right altitude 91裸聊视频� allowed a somewhat raggedy storm to rapidly develop structure and strengthen.
McNoldy said there may be a mystery ingredient that scientists just don91裸聊视频檛 know right now, but water is key.
Warm water is fuel for hurricanes. Hot, deep water is like an all-you-can-eat buffet.
Globally, the world91裸聊视频檚 oceans have been setting monthly surface heat records since April. The surface waters off the Mexican coast were warm but 91裸聊视频渘ot crazy warm,91裸聊视频� said University at Albany atmospheric scientist Kristen Corbosiero. Bennan and McNoldy said those waters were maybe 1 or 2 degrees above normal.
Below that, the water was much hotter than usual 91裸聊视频渁nd there91裸聊视频檚 just a ton of fuel out there right now,91裸聊视频� McNoldy said. Still, the storm didn91裸聊视频檛 linger and feed on that, which would be expected in rapid intensification, Brennan said.
The heat content in the deeper ocean worldwide has been It91裸聊视频檚 from human-caused climate change, McNoldy and other scientists said, as the oceans act as a sponge to absorb a lot of the excess heat caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas.
Otis and two other historically explosive cases of rapid intensification 91裸聊视频� Patricia in 2015 and Wilma in 2005 91裸聊视频� all happened in the same mid- to late-October time frame, when deeper water and ocean heat content is at its highest, McNoldy said.
Numerous studies have shown globally that there are than there used to be. An official definition of rapid intensification is a gain in strength of 35 mph (56 kph) in 24 hours. , many of them just before smacking land. In 2017, two devastating hurricanes, Harvey and Maria, rapidly intensified. Last month in the Atlantic, Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified from 80 mph (129 kph) to 155 mph (249 kph), but didn91裸聊视频檛 hit anywhere.
91裸聊视频淲e91裸聊视频檙e seeing so many more cases of these just astonishing rapid intensification events,91裸聊视频� said former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hurricane and climate scientist Jim Kossin, now with the First Street Foundation.
Kossin said that there91裸聊视频檚 evidence that what91裸聊视频檚 happening globally over a longer time frame is due in part to human-caused climate change but it91裸聊视频檚 hard to say that about an individual storm.
But, he added, 91裸聊视频渢his is exactly the kind of thing we would expect to find as the climate warms.91裸聊视频�
MIT91裸聊视频檚 Emanuel said it might be more than just the water91裸聊视频檚 temperature, but its low salinity, too. Water in that area at this time of year is fresher from heavy rains at the surface, and that changes the mix of water temperature, he said. Normally a hurricane mixes the warm water on the surface with cooler water below. But when the surface water is fresher, a storm pulls up even more hot water from below, which feeds the storm more 91裸聊视频渁nd before you know it, you91裸聊视频檙e in hot water,91裸聊视频� Emanuel said.
One key test of that theory is whether Otis leaves warm water in its wake. Usually, hurricanes leave behind cold water. Emanuel hopes satellite images will show it, but it91裸聊视频檚 not certain whether they91裸聊视频檒l get the right view.
Another factor that Brennan and others mention is that perhaps forecasters underestimated Otis91裸聊视频� original strength. That would mean it didn91裸聊视频檛 intensify as much as it appears because it was stronger to begin with.
91裸聊视频淭he East Pacific in a lot of ways is a huge data void,91裸聊视频� Brennan said. 91裸聊视频淭here91裸聊视频檚 no buoys. There91裸聊视频檚 very few land observations. There91裸聊视频檚 no radars along the west coast of Mexico. So we91裸聊视频檙e really reliant almost entirely on satellite imagery.91裸聊视频�
And sometimes satellites, looking at a storm from high above, cannot get an accurate picture of what91裸聊视频檚 going on.
Think of it like a jigsaw puzzle and forecasters at times have only 10% of the pieces, Brennan said.
Forecasters have far more tools to see what91裸聊视频檚 happening in Atlantic storms, he said.
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Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press
