91Ƶ

Skip to content

B.C. Conservatives control right, need urban votes for that to matter: analysts

Party in 91Ƶpole position91Ƶ to take on NDP, but will their message resonate in vote-rich urban areas
web1_240604-bpd-pilon-sturko_1
Surrey-South MLA Elenore Sturko and Conservative Party of B.C. John Rustad speak with the media Monday at the legislature after Sturko had left B.C. United for Rustad91Ƶs party. (Wolf Depner/News Staff)

Political scientists see the Conservative Party of B.C. in the driver-seat when it comes to challenging the B.C. NDP, but it is not clear whether the provincial Tories will make in-roads in vote-rich urban B.C.

Dennis Pilon, Chair in the Department of Politics at York University, who previously taught at the University of Victoria, said the current split on the right side of the political spectrum is nothing new.

First the Socreds, then the B.C. Liberals, represented coalitions of more socially liberal urban voters and socially conservative rural voters, who found common ground in being pro-enterprise, fiscally conservative and anti-NDP, Pilon said.

Tensions have always defined these coalitions and the provincial Conservatives are currently benefiting from increased polarization and the strength of the federal Conservatives, he added. But this rise is not happening evenly across the province. Polls show the provincial Conservatives behind the NDP in Metro Vancouver and Greater Victoria.

91ƵThey (Conservatives) are looking like they are in the pole position to see voters come to them as a party that can beat the NDP, but it is not clear that urban right-wingers will be prepared to sign on to the Conservatives,91Ƶ Pilon said.

Only the election will tell whether enough former B.C. Liberals in the urban parts of B.C. 91Ƶ many of them federal Liberals 91Ƶ are 91Ƶprepared to hold their nose and vote for a party with conservative in its name,91Ƶ Pilon said.

He made these comments following Monday91Ƶs defection of high-profile MLA Elenore Sturko to the Conservative Party of B.C. from B.C. United.

Its leader Kevin Falcon had personally recruited Sturko to run in Surrey-South, which she won in the fall of 2022. She has since then emerged as one of the most prolific MLAs on either side of the legislature.

UBC political scientist Stewart Prest considers her departure to the provincial Conservatives under John Rustad a 91Ƶsignificant coup91Ƶ for the party.

Sturko stands apart from her three caucus colleagues in several ways. She is not only a woman representing a fast-growing urban riding in Metro Vancouver, she is also a member of the 2SLGBTQ+ community.

Pilon said it not necessarily unusual for members of that community to be part of parties on the right side of political spectrum, pointing to former B.C. Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt.

RELATED:

RELATED:

Prest said Sturko can 91Ƶhelp bolster91Ƶ the argument of the provincial Conservatives as 91Ƶmore of a big-tent91Ƶ right-of-centre party.

91ƵI91Ƶm sure they (Conservatives) are really hoping that,91Ƶ Pilon added.

But Prest and Pilon each expressed reservations about how far Sturko91Ƶs new party and ultimately voters might buy her turn.

91ƵIn this case, to see someone who is a self-described 2SLGBTQ activist joining a conservative party seems bit of a stretch and I can91Ƶt help but feel people are going to see it as being pretty opportunistic,91Ƶ Pilon said.

Prest, meanwhile, raises questions about the Conservatives91Ƶ ideological consistency and whom the party actually represents. 91ƵBecause up until last year, it really was a party that was a welcoming home91Ƶfor the skeptics of modernity,91Ƶ he said in pointing to the party91Ƶs outside-the-mainstream positions on climate change, vaccines and social inclusion.

91Ƶ(Those) voices are still there and they have been amplified,91Ƶ Prest said. 91ƵThe scrutiny is only going to increase this morning (after Sturko91Ƶs defection).91Ƶ

Rustad has consistently said his party has never been about any ideology and Sturko said Monday that she accepted the apology of Conservative candidate Paul Ratchford, who called her a 91Ƶwoke, lesbian, social justice warrior91Ƶ on social media.

91ƵYes, we could talk about Twitter all day, but what we need to do is unite with a party that is resonating with British Columbians,91Ƶ Sturko said Monday.

Others have been less forgiving. Figures inside and outside of B.C. United have highlighted Sturko91Ƶs previous criticisms of her new party. Some have also accused her of betraying the 2SLGBTQ community, a charge she has rejected.

Looking back, it is not unusual for a new centre-of-right party to emerge out of the ashes of another one, Pilon said. W.A.C Bennett, perhaps synoymous with the Socreds, was once a provincial Conservative, he said. B.C. Liberals, for their part, had emerged out of the Socreds.

Notably, B.C.91Ƶs first-past-the-post, winner-take-all-electoral system leaves no room for a divided right, something Pilon finds ironic.

91ƵThey could adopt a proportional system and then every vote would count. But 91Ƶno, no, no,91Ƶ they wanted to keep this system where the votes don91Ƶt necessarily match up with the seats,91Ƶ he said. 91ƵThis is the dilemma that the two right-of-centre parties have now. They actually don91Ƶt want to unite.91Ƶ

RELATED:

RELATED:

RELATED:



Wolf Depner

About the Author: Wolf Depner

I joined the national team with Black Press Media in 2023 from the Peninsula News Review, where I had reported on Vancouver Island's Saanich Peninsula since 2019.
Read more



(or

91Ƶ

) document.head.appendChild(flippScript); window.flippxp = window.flippxp || {run: []}; window.flippxp.run.push(function() { window.flippxp.registerSlot("#flipp-ux-slot-ssdaw212", "Black Press Media Standard", 1281409, [312035]); }); }