If the past is any indication, judicial recounts scheduled for next week are not likely to change the outcome of last month's election.

The final count released Monday gives the B.C. NDP 47 seats, enough for a bare majority, the Conservative Party of B.C. 44 seats and the B.C. Greens two seats. But two ridings, Surrey-Guildford and Kelowna-Centre, are heading for judicial recounts, which must take place because the difference between the top two candidates is less than 1/500th of the total ballots considered. 

New Democrat Garry Begg has 27 more votes than Conservative Honveer Randhawa in Surrey-Guildford. Conservative Kristina Loewen has 38 more votes than New Democrat Loyal Wooldridge in Kelowna-Centre. Judicial recounts also took place in 2020, 2013 and 2009 with none of them changing the results in the contested ridings, let alone the final overall winner of the election. 

In 2020, 41 votes separated B.C. Liberal Jordan Sturdy from second-placed Jeremy Valeriote of the B.C. Greens in the riding of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky. Sturdy's lead grew to 60 votes following the recount conducted by Supreme Court of British Columbia Justice David Crerar. 

In 2013, 35 votes separated then-New Democrat Selina Robinson from second-placed Steve Kim of the B.C. Liberals in the riding of Coquitlam-Maillardville. The recount conducted by Supreme Court of British Columbia Barry Davies upheld the result in confirming Robinson's victory. 

In 2009, 32 votes separated independent Vicki Huntington from B.C. Liberal Wally Oppal in the riding of Delta South. The recount conducted by Supreme Court of British Columbia Justice Cathy Wedge upheld Huntington's election. 

Elections BC this week confirmed that these recounts will take place on Nov. 7-8 following a court decision on Wednesday. Those dates in turn will help determine the timing of the fall sitting that Premier David Eby announced earlier this week. The dates also promise to intensify the search for a speaker as the B.C. NDP has actively reached out to the Conservatives to supply one, only to be rebuffed so far. 

Elections BC this week confirmed that these recounts will take place on Nov. 7-8 following a court decision on Wednesday. Those dates in turn will help determine the timing of the fall sitting that Premier David Eby announced earlier this week. The dates also promise to intensify the search for a speaker as the B.C. NDP has actively reached out to the Conservatives to supply one, only to be rebuffed so far. 

Martyn Brown, former chief of staff to former B.C. Liberal premier Gordon Campbell, also predicted on CBC Radio Friday (Nov. 1) that New Democrats will be able to govern comfortably, even with a one-seat majority.

"Right now, with the Greens, the NDP will have a working majority of three seats, counting the speaker," Brown said. "There are not a lot of opportunities to bring the government down."