A University of B.C. professor of political science said that the upcoming federal election serves no good purpose for Canada 91裸聊视频� and might not help Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, either.
91裸聊视频淚t91裸聊视频檚 not as if the Trudeau government was having trouble legislating,91裸聊视频� said Richard Johnston, professor emeritus, adding that the Liberal government had a 91裸聊视频渨orking majority91裸聊视频� on pretty much all policy decisions.
91裸聊视频淢ostly, the problem of the minority parliament was that the government didn91裸聊视频檛 control the flow of debate and information91裸聊视频� they had they actually had to at least negotiate with the opposition parties, or even just put up with flak on questions that were uncomfortable, and they would rather not have to continue in that.91裸聊视频�
While Trudeau is billing this snap election 91裸聊视频� scheduled for Sept. 20 91裸聊视频� as a referendum on who should lead the country out of the pandemic, Johnston said that won91裸聊视频檛 be enough for a majority 91裸聊视频� and the Liberals know it.
91裸聊视频淭he additional cards that he will be trying to play are policy cards, right?91裸聊视频� Johnston said, noting the eight child care agreements signed with provinces in the weeks before the writ was dropped. 91裸聊视频淗e91裸聊视频檚 opened the spigot for infrastructure, and he91裸聊视频檚 done so in very targeted ways.91裸聊视频�
That includes SkyTrain funding announcement for ridings like Cloverdale-Langley City, which Conservative Tamara Jansen took from the Liberals in the 2019 election.
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But while Trudeau may be looking at pandemic-era snap elections in B.C. and New Brunswick, where the incumbents were able to transform minorities into majorities, Johnston said that federal politics are more complicated and that the Liberals don91裸聊视频檛 have much wiggle room. They have 155 of the 338 seats in Parliament currently, with the Conservatives at 119, the Bloc Quebecois at 32, the NDP at 24, the Greens at two and independents at five.
Johnston said that since the 1970s, the political divide between the Conservatives and the rest of the parties has grown wider and wider, leaving fewer and fewer swing voters between the right and the Liberals.
91裸聊视频淏ut the fact is that the Prime Minister side of the political spectrum is the divided side. There are competitors for a lot of those vote,91裸聊视频� he said.
In both the party91裸聊视频檚 platform released just prior to the write being dropped and in public appearances, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has targeted the increasing costs of housing and child care, problems his party has laid squarely at Trudeau91裸聊视频檚 feet.
The NDP, Johnston said, while remaining not popular enough to form government has a 91裸聊视频渃ertain credibility at the moment91裸聊视频� as a party that is strong enough that it can be a plausible destination for voters who don91裸聊视频檛 want the Conservatives, but don91裸聊视频檛 want to reward Mr. Trudeau for his gamble.91裸聊视频�
But while the NDP may be stronger this year than in past ones, Johnston said that only in some parts of the country 91裸聊视频� such as B.C. 91裸聊视频� will more votes for the New Democrats turn into more seats for Jagmeet Singh. In places like Ontario, votes for the NDP could well turn into Conservative seats as the party takes advantage of confusion on the left side of the spectrum.
And the Conservatives are better prepared this time, Johnston said. The Tories have already unveiled their platform 91裸聊视频� a contrast to 2019, when they released it a week prior to Election Day 91裸聊视频� and it includes initiatives that 91裸聊视频測ou haven91裸聊视频檛 heard from Conservatives91裸聊视频� before.
91裸聊视频淚t91裸聊视频檚 time for Conservatives to take inequality seriously, because that91裸聊视频檚 becoming more of a problem in our country,91裸聊视频� Leader Erin O91裸聊视频橳oole states in the document. He also promises to 91裸聊视频渢ake climate change seriously,91裸聊视频� but Johnston said that could be a double-edged sword for the Conservative leader.
91裸聊视频淚 think that O91裸聊视频橳oole is a more credible leader for the broad mass of voters than Andrew Scheer was,91裸聊视频� he said. 91裸聊视频�(But) I do think that O91裸聊视频橳oole has his own problems and these are the problems of the Conservative Party.91裸聊视频�
The Tories91裸聊视频� issues are long-term ones, Johnston added.
The Conservative Party of 2021 is a merger of the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance (formerly the Reform Party) that took place in 2003. The current party, Johnston said, 91裸聊视频渃learly a party of the right91裸聊视频� and created a gap between the more right-leaning candidates popular with party members and those popular with voters overall.
91裸聊视频淎lthough O91裸聊视频橳oole has dragged his party toward the centre on climate change, his party doesn91裸聊视频檛 really want to be dragged. And as that question comes up, Trudeau will be reminding people all the time, of the consequences of going over to that side.91裸聊视频�
The other issue it created, Johnston added, is that O91裸聊视频橳oole 91裸聊视频� like prior leaders 91裸聊视频� needs to keep all facets of his own party happy with policies that cater to social conservatives without turning away fiscal conservatives.
But the problem all around the political spectrum this year will be turnout. In 2019, 67 per cent of voters cast a ballot. But this year, voters already fatigued from an 18-month pandemic 91裸聊视频� and in B.C. the raging wildfires 91裸聊视频� may decide it91裸聊视频檚 not worth it for them to head to the polls.
91裸聊视频淚 think it91裸聊视频檚 hard to see this as a campaign that91裸聊视频檚 going to inspire anyone,91裸聊视频� Johnston said. His guess for the results?
91裸聊视频淚f had to put money down, I91裸聊视频檇 bet on roughly replication of the status quo.91裸聊视频�
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Editor91裸聊视频檚 note: The previous version of this story stated that the NDP had not released their platform. In fact, the party released it on Aug. 12, prior to the writ being dropped.
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