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Vancouver Island salmon return 'one of the best in 20 years'

Climate change could undermine this year's good return and impact future salmon generations, expert says
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Millions of salmon can be seen swimming upstream across B.C.91裸聊视频檚 numerous coastal river systems during the annual salmon spawning season in fall.

91裸聊视频淟ooking at this year's salmon return, relative to the last 15 years91裸聊视频 I would call this year certainly average to above average,91裸聊视频 said Greg Taylor, senior fisheries advisor to Watershed Watch Salmon Society. 

As some B.C. salmon hatcheries are experiencing their , experts across the province are welcoming the refreshing news. 

91裸聊视频淲e've seen good returns across species and populations,91裸聊视频 said Taylor. 91裸聊视频淥n the east coast of Vancouver Island, in most cases, we91裸聊视频檙e seeing excellent chum returns and very good coho returns,91裸聊视频 said Taylor. 91裸聊视频淥n the west coast, we saw excellent sockeye returns.91裸聊视频

Another promising sign, noted Taylor, is the reappearance of steelhead, a member of the salmonid family, previously thought to be on the brink of collapse in numerous watersheds.

Peter McCully, a biologist and longtime volunteer with the Goldstream Hatchery in Greater Victoria shared his enthusiasm as this year91裸聊视频檚 numbers are above all prior expectations. 

91裸聊视频淚n the last few years, [chum salmon] have been suffering from changing ocean conditions so we were sort of apprehensive about how the run would look this year,91裸聊视频 he said. 91裸聊视频淏ut as it turns out the return has exceeded DFO91裸聊视频檚 target.91裸聊视频

Originally hoping to reach the threshold of 15,000 chum, McCully reported that upwards of 20,000 returned to the river this year. Additionally, the hatchery harvested up to 1,800 coho, which McCully labelled as a 91裸聊视频渞eally significant91裸聊视频 number.

91裸聊视频淭his is one of the best returns that there's been for the last 20 years I would suggest,91裸聊视频 he said. 91裸聊视频淭hey91裸聊视频檙e by no means record returns, but they're better than what we had anticipated.91裸聊视频

When asked about the reasons behind this year's spawning numbers across the province, experts remain puzzled by the increase.

91裸聊视频淲e still don't quite understand what the changes are, but the [conditions are] very good and very suited for salmon,91裸聊视频 said Taylor. 91裸聊视频淲e're seeing some real changes in the Salish Sea where large numbers of chinooks91裸聊视频 and cohos are migrating through at very high numbers.91裸聊视频

At this time, without the perspective of history, McCully and Taylor noted that any conclusions are purely speculative. 

91裸聊视频淲ith salmon, no one has the defining answer,91裸聊视频 said Taylor. 91裸聊视频淏ased on my observations91裸聊视频 we saw good returns coastwide. We've also seen a change in the northeast Pacific where91裸聊视频 the temperatures in the waters have become more beneficial to our salmon.91裸聊视频 

Potential theories range widely, including a recent switch in climate, , which both have global impacts on weather and the ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest. 

Unlike El Nino events, which bring warmer waters, unfavourable to salmonids, La Nina climate patterns bring cooler, nutrient-rich waters to the West Coast, from which salmon species benefit. 

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La Nina causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During this climate pattern, Canada tend to tend to experience wetter and colder temperatures. . (Photo via NOAA's website)

Another theory that may have benefited B.C.91裸聊视频檚 salmon involves a recent decline in pink salmon populations from Alaskan hatcheries and chum populations from Japanese hatcheries in the Pacific this year, explained Taylor.

91裸聊视频淪cientists have shown how there is a relationship between the hatchery abundance 91裸聊视频 how much fish we put into the ocean 91裸聊视频 and how that impacts B.C. salmon runs,91裸聊视频 he said. 91裸聊视频淸If you] put out billions of salmon from hatcheries they just out-compete wild salmon stocks.91裸聊视频

91裸聊视频淭his year, for whatever reason, they weren't there and I think our fish saw the benefit of the relative absence of hatchery fish.91裸聊视频

As Taylor reiterated, the exact justification behind this year91裸聊视频檚 numbers remains unclear, as what happens in the ocean is still unknown.

91裸聊视频淚t could have been just the cooler temperatures in the Bering Sea, or it could have been [less] predators. We just don't understand,91裸聊视频 said Taylor. 91裸聊视频淚n the fisheries, we call the Pacific Ocean the 91裸聊视频榖lack box91裸聊视频 because we don't have a good idea of what happens out there.91裸聊视频

Enthusiasm on hold

Although what happens out at sea remains a mystery, Taylor stressed that some of the greatest threats to salmon are man-made.

91裸聊视频淲e're seeing good returns, but what we saw this summer was climate change in action,91裸聊视频 said Taylor. 91裸聊视频淚f I compared it to when I began my career, I would classify them as poor and if I was to them to pre-contact, they're abysmal.

Concerned about , which dried up numerous vital streams across the province, experts feared for this year91裸聊视频檚 spawning season. Fortunately, fall rains arrived on time, and rivers across B.C. swelled just in time for the salmon91裸聊视频檚 final journey.

If B.C. experiences similar droughts this summer, it could be 91裸聊视频渇atal91裸聊视频 for coho, chinook, and sockeye, which reside in lakes and rivers for up to a year after hatching before migrating to the ocean, explained Taylor. 

91裸聊视频淭he marine environment's been terrific for salmon, but hopefully, they get a decent summer next year and the progeny do well next year,91裸聊视频 said Taylor. 91裸聊视频淏ut if we have another drought next year, a lot of the benefits will be decimated.91裸聊视频

Drying streams can be deadly for juvenile salmon, exposing them to high temperatures, lack of water, and predators. 

Other man-made threats, like logging, mining, extensive urban development and other human activities near spawning streams can have deleterious impacts on fish populations, added Taylor. 

Even once out at sea, these silvery fish are not entirely out of harm's way. Noting that salmon are among the few species on Earth reliant on both freshwater and ocean environments, this makes them particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change.

Events like an upcoming El Nino pattern or large marine heatwaves, such as 91裸聊视频淭he Blob91裸聊视频 in the Pacific Northwest from 2013 to 2016, which raised ocean temperatures by up to 3.9 C in some areas, all pose a serious risk to both current and future salmon populations. 

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Sea surface temperature anomaly maps show temperatures above normal in orange and red. (Photo via NOAA's website)

Though the impact of climate change on salmon is unclear, said Taylor, any blow dealt to this keystone species could have devastating ripple effects on the West Coast food chain, affecting resident killer whales, bears, eagles, wolves, and more.

Hopeful signs

Despite painting a grim picture of B.C. salmon's potential future, Taylor remains optimistic. After being in fisheries since the '80s, and witnessing firsthand the impact of climate change on the marine environment, the fisheries expert argues that it91裸聊视频檚 not too late to reverse some ongoing worrying trends. 

Although limiting carbon emissions is the best way to mitigate global warming, Taylor said that smaller efforts, such as adapting and restoring local streams to make them more salmon-friendly, would also be of great help. Additionally, rethinking urban expansion and its impact on local streams and salmon populations could also be beneficial, he noted

Before his conservation work, Taylor led a First Nations' gillnet fleet for years and has seen how reconciliation efforts have reshaped the province91裸聊视频檚 fisheries over time. As DFO hands more responsibility for salmon management to First Nations, Taylor believes this partnership could be key to safeguarding the salmon's future.

91裸聊视频淔irst Nations are stepping up and they bring a different ethic to it,91裸聊视频 he said. 91裸聊视频淚t's a marriage between good science, good management, and a different belief system when it comes to [salmon] management. That's what gives me more hope in the future.91裸聊视频



Olivier Laurin

About the Author: Olivier Laurin

I91裸聊视频檓 a bilingual multimedia journalist from Montr茅al who began my journalistic journey on Vancouver Island in 2023.
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