The calculus of predicting an election and identifying its key battlegrounds is complex enough in any race, but observers of the provincial poll this month are facing a pair of unknown quantities that make the maths even more confounding.
Those are the significant redistribution that has added six ridings to the electoral map, and the collapse of the Opposition BC United party, formerly the BC Liberals, coupled with the rise of the upstart B.C. Conservatives as the NDP91裸聊视频檚 main challenger.
Kennedy Stewart, Vancouver91裸聊视频檚 former mayor who also sat in Parliament in Ottawa for the NDP from 2011 to 2018, said those factors make the Oct. 19 election tough to call.
91裸聊视频淥rdinarily, in a race where it has familiar parties with familiar ridings, familiar boundaries, it91裸聊视频檚 a lot easier to predict what91裸聊视频檚 going to happen,91裸聊视频� said Stewart.
91裸聊视频淏ut those two main things 91裸聊视频� the boundary changes and the total upheaval on the centre-right 91裸聊视频� make this a very difficult election to predict.91裸聊视频�
Mike McDonald was chief of staff for BC Liberal premier Christy Clark and is co-host of the Hotel Pacifico podcast on the province91裸聊视频檚 political scene. He said there are 91裸聊视频渁lways a few ridings that surprise you91裸聊视频� but this year91裸聊视频檚 realignment of both ridings and parties adds even more volatility.
Even so, both McDonald and Stewart say some areas will face scrutiny for their ability to turn the race. These include seats that swung into NDP hands in 2020 on the back of a 14 per cent gap with the Liberals in the overall popular vote.
McDonald said a gap that wide created a 91裸聊视频渨ave91裸聊视频� pushing the NDP over the finish line in ridings that are not traditionally left-leaning, including districts in Fraser Valley communities such as Langley, Abbotsford and Chilliwack.
The NDP took five of seven ridings in those communities in 2020.
91裸聊视频淚n this election, the public polls are telling us it91裸聊视频檚 going to be much tighter, at least so far,91裸聊视频� McDonald said of the popular vote. 91裸聊视频淎nd so, if we were single-digit margin on the popular vote provincewide 91裸聊视频� say, less than five per cent difference 91裸聊视频� then you91裸聊视频檙e going to see a lot of those NDP seats that were won in 2020 fall by the wayside.91裸聊视频�
The question then turns to how far such a Conservative wave in the Fraser Valley might push into Metro Vancouver, McDonald said.
He pointed to the importance of Langley-Willowbrook, which includes the city of Langley, as a riding that had seen a trend of younger families moving in from bigger communities in the Lower Mainland.
91裸聊视频淭hat riding is in question,91裸聊视频� he said. 91裸聊视频淚t91裸聊视频檚 gone federal Liberal in some recent elections, and it went NDP last time, of course. So a riding like Langley-Willowbrook might be where the NDP start to push back and resist the Conservative momentum.91裸聊视频�
Stewart said attention should also be on deep urban ridings, historically places where the NDP has done well against centre-right parties.
He said that trend may not hold given what he described as the NDP91裸聊视频檚 shift toward the centre on issues such as the carbon tax and involuntary care for drug users and the mentally ill. Such policies could be designed to fend off the right but may lower voter enthusiasm among the NDP91裸聊视频檚 base, he said.
91裸聊视频淚 think that all adds up to say that even in traditional areas that would be safe for the NDP like Vancouver, you91裸聊视频檙e going to see some ridings that would be in play for the Conservatives that may not have been in play in the past,91裸聊视频� Stewart said.
91裸聊视频淪o for example, areas like Vancouver-Little Mountain that91裸聊视频檚 had a significant boundary change, you may see that being a tighter race than you would normally see. You would see Langara, even (NDP Leader David Eby91裸聊视频檚) own riding of Point Grey, which has gone back and forth between the centre-right and the NDP, probably in play as well.91裸聊视频�
Stewart said he was also looking at ridings where the BC Green Party has traditionally been strong, watching how the NDP91裸聊视频檚 shift to the centre especially on issues such as the carbon tax would play out.
He noted the Greens face challenges as leader Sonia Furstenau switches ridings to face NDP cabinet member Grace Lore in Victoria-Beacon Hill.
Her deputy, Adam Olsen, has decided against running in Saanich North and the Islands, leaving no incumbent Greens defending their seats.
91裸聊视频淚 thought this wasn91裸聊视频檛 going to be great for the Greens,91裸聊视频� Stewart said. 91裸聊视频淗owever, with the NDP kind of shifting to the right 91裸聊视频� I think it really does open an opportunity for the Greens to pick up disaffected NDP voters.91裸聊视频�
McDonald said the Greens91裸聊视频� best shot at retaining a seat at the legislature may be West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, where their candidate Jeremy Valeriote lost to the BC Liberals91裸聊视频� Jordan Sturdy by 60 votes in 2020.
Valeriote returns to contest the riding but Sturdy isn91裸聊视频檛 running. Instead, Valeriote faces two other high-profile candidates 91裸聊视频� Order of B.C. recipient Yuri Fulmer for the Conservatives and former Union of BC Municipalities president Jen Ford for the NDP.
91裸聊视频淭hat region has changed a lot,91裸聊视频� McDonald said. 91裸聊视频淭he Sea-to-Sky corridor is a bigger part of the population there (in the riding) than the West Vancouver part, so that one will be very unpredictable and I think that will definitely be one to watch.91裸聊视频�
McDonald said he also foresees fierce competitions in traditional battlegrounds in Maple Ridge, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Courtenay-Comox and Skeena, as well as communities with demographic changes such as Surrey and Richmond.
He isn91裸聊视频檛 optimistic for the group of former BC United incumbents now running as Independents against Conservatives in traditionally centre-right settings.
91裸聊视频淚 think where the independent candidates will make the biggest impact are in ridings where the NDP have a chance of winning, and a strong Independent may dilute the Conservative vote and help elect an NDP MLA,91裸聊视频� McDonald said, citing Vernon-Lumby as an example.
There, Lumby mayor and former BC United candidate Kevin Acton is running as an Independent against incumbent NDP candidate Harwinder Sandhu and the Conservatives91裸聊视频� Dennis Giesbrecht.
Incumbents running as Independents, such as Mike Bernier in Peace River South, Dan Davies in Peace River North, Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies, Coralee Oakes in Prince George-North Cariboo and Karin Kirkpatrick in West Vancouver-Capilano, will find re-election tough, said McDonald.
91裸聊视频淚n British Columbia91裸聊视频檚 history, it91裸聊视频檚 very hard for an Independent to win an election. It91裸聊视频檚 only happened a handful of times,91裸聊视频� he said
But a strong candidate and local campaigning matter too, when margins between parties are slim.
91裸聊视频淚t91裸聊视频檚 winning the little local-issue battles, riding by riding. In 2017, that one riding, Courtenay-Comox, decided the fate of who governs B.C.,91裸聊视频� he said, referring to the narrow win by the NDP91裸聊视频檚 Ronna-Rae Leonard that ultimately helped the NDP91裸聊视频檚 John Horgan become premier.
91裸聊视频淪o many things could have happened differently in that election to turn that riding the other way.
91裸聊视频淭hat91裸聊视频檚 a good thing about elections. They should be unpredictable to some degree, because it91裸聊视频檚 up to voters decide at the end of the day.91裸聊视频�
