The end of an agreement between the federal Liberals and New Democrats has the potential to trigger a federal election ahead of the October 2025 date.
Since 2022, an agreement between the two parties has helped the Liberals keep their minority government operating.
In the 2021 federal election, the federal Liberals, under Justin Trudeau, won 160 of 338 seats in the House of Commons. This was well ahead of the second-place Conservatives, with 119 seats, but it did not meet the threshold of 170 seats needed for a majority. The New Democrats, who won 25 seats in the 2021 election, were able to support the Liberal minority.
The end of the agreement is not enough to topple the government. For that to happen, the Liberals would need to lose a vote of non-confidence.
The New Democrats have said they will consider each vote on a case-by-case basis. This will help to give the party an identity separate from that of the Liberals.
It also means Canadians may find themselves in the throes of a federal election well before the fall of 2025.
At the time of the last federal election, the federal Conservatives had slightly more voter support than the Liberals but won fewer seats. At present, the Conservatives are dominating in the polls, often with support from more than two in five eligible voters.
The Conservative Party has had a strong showing since early September 2022, when Pierre Poilievre was elected leader of that party.
At the same time, support for the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau has been slipping, often polling slightly below one-quarter of eligible voters.
The end of the agreement means federal political parties need to prepare now for the next federal election, developing platforms, vetting candidates and possibly considering if they want a different leader at the helm before voters cast their ballots.
The agreement between the Liberals and New Democrats is over now, and while the federal government is continuing, the political landscape in this country could change quickly.
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