After five straight holds of the Bank of Canada91裸聊视频檚 key interest rate that followed its hiking cycle of more than a year, economists say a rebound awaits the national housing market 91裸聊视频� but don91裸聊视频檛 expect a big surge just yet.
The central bank is expected to again hold its key rate steady when it announces its decision Wednesday, but it91裸聊视频檚 unclear what direction it will take next.
With modest cuts likely in store later this year 91裸聊视频� some forecasts call for those to begin as soon as June 91裸聊视频� it could take months before buyers are confident enough to come crawling back from the sidelines.
That uncertainty may keep some buyers cautious throughout the spring, said TD Bank economist Rishi Sondhi.
91裸聊视频淚 think it91裸聊视频檚 a bit of a muddy backdrop there and maybe that might be restraining some of the activity,91裸聊视频� he said.
But Sondhi said Canada91裸聊视频檚 housing market is 91裸聊视频渁kin to a bit of a coiled spring,91裸聊视频� noting sales activity and prices typically jump when there91裸聊视频檚 a shift 91裸聊视频渢hat jolts the market91裸聊视频� such as an interest rate cut.
91裸聊视频淭here91裸聊视频檚 significant pent-up demand out there, particularly in Ontario and B.C., so it just takes a bit of a spark.91裸聊视频�
In its latest report on national home sales and pricing data, the Canadian Real Estate Association hinted that February could mark 91裸聊视频渢he last relatively uneventful month of the year.91裸聊视频�
91裸聊视频淎fter two years of mostly quiet resale housing activity, there91裸聊视频檚 a feeling that things are about to pick up,91裸聊视频� CREA chair Larry Cerqua said in a statement last month.
91裸聊视频淎t this point, it91裸聊视频檚 hard to know whether buyers are going to wait for a signal from the Bank of Canada or whether they91裸聊视频檙e just waiting for the spring listings to hit the market.91裸聊视频�
Greater Toronto Area-Realtor Dean Artenosi called the current moment a 91裸聊视频渢ipping point where the worst is behind us.91裸聊视频� He said the central bank has signalled that interest rates have 91裸聊视频渓evelled out91裸聊视频� through its consecutive rate holds, and that has made buyers more optimistic.
91裸聊视频淭he mood and the mindset, the psyche, is that we91裸聊视频檙e back to a normal market,91裸聊视频� said Artenosi, co-owner of Coldwell Banker The Real Estate Centre Brokerage.
91裸聊视频淧eople have gotten comfortable 91裸聊视频� and are used to making the payments at these higher rates. Buyers are starting to come back into the marketplace. Obviously there91裸聊视频檚 talk of the rates starting to come down now and we91裸聊视频檙e seeing multiple offers again on some properties.91裸聊视频�
Out West, activity cooled in March after 2024 got off to a red-hot start, said Tim Hill with Re/Max All Points Realty.
The Vancouver real estate agent said many of his clients now find themselves in a holding pattern while waiting for rates to fall. He said others are weighing the pros and cons of buying before that point in time, which is expected to spur price growth amid lower borrowing costs.
91裸聊视频淲e can all feel pretty confident that (the central bank is) not making a change yet, as much as people might wish. But maybe we91裸聊视频檒l get some more information in their press release of where their heads are at and when we might see that Bank of Canada rate come down,91裸聊视频� said Hill.
91裸聊视频淔or me, I91裸聊视频檓 feeling now that we91裸聊视频檝e seen this kind of lull, I think April is going to be a really tell-tale month for how the rest of the spring goes.91裸聊视频�
RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue predicted a 91裸聊视频済radual91裸聊视频� rebound later this year as the central bank91裸聊视频檚 rate-cutting cycle progresses, rather than a major uptick in activity following its first reduction.
He said there are some exceptions to that forecast, notably the Calgary market, which has remained strong despite elevated rates. Increased demand from interprovincial migration and below-average inventory have kept the market tight in that city, according to the local real estate board.
91裸聊视频淭hat91裸聊视频檚 a market that continues to be pretty robust and we don91裸聊视频檛 see that changing,91裸聊视频� Hogue said.
Despite pent-up demand, affordability remains a major issue in markets such as Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal.
91裸聊视频淚 don91裸聊视频檛 see it as much of an issue of being prudent or cautious, but more in terms of the budget constraint to buyers,91裸聊视频� said Hogue.
He said Canada could see a 91裸聊视频渟eries of small waves91裸聊视频� in some markets within the next few months, where activity picks up as some try to get ahead of interest rate cuts.
91裸聊视频淔or those mini-waves to be sustained, you need a critical mass of buyers making their way back into the market,91裸聊视频� Hogue said.
91裸聊视频淔or that, our view remains that we need to see a significant drop in mortgage rates, which I think is more of a second half of 2024 story than the spring market.91裸聊视频�
Artenosi said he91裸聊视频檚 urging his clients not to wait. While borrowing conditions could be more favourable in the months to come, he warned of other factors, including Canada91裸聊视频檚 growing population, that could make it more difficult to buy at an affordable price.
Statistics Canada91裸聊视频檚 live population tracker showed Canada91裸聊视频檚 population topped 41 million in late March, less than a year after hitting the 40-million milestone.
91裸聊视频淧laying the waiting game is a mistake,91裸聊视频� said Artenosi, who added those holding out may increasingly find themselves in bidding wars.
91裸聊视频淭here91裸聊视频檚 going to be no perfect scenario.91裸聊视频�
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