A political scientist sees the last 24 hours in provincial Conservative politics as a battle between two competing camps, while a political consultant sees the party eventually splitting into three factions. 

"It seems like there is a battle underway for what I feel like the soul of the Conservative party," Stewart Prest, UBC political science lecturer, said. "So we have to wait and see how that resolves itself to understand what kind of opposition party we are going to see in the province." 

Prest's comments come after Conservative Vancouver-Quilchena MLA Dallas Brodie refused to take down a tweet, which critics say amounts to residential school denialism, and after she and four other MLAs voted against a motion that condemns tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened and calls for retaliatory tariffs against 'Red' states.

One moderate, inclusive-oriented camp stands opposite what Prest called a "much more populist conservative wing" willing to vote against strong opposition to the threatened tariffs and voice all "kinds of conspiratorial skepticism" regarding the realities of residential schools.

Prest added that Rustad appears unable to effectively adjudicate between the two camps.

Rustad himself Tuesday (Feb. 25) acknowledged divisions, but denied their significance. 

"I'll put it this way, what family in this province doesn't have issues or divisions in it?" Rustad said.

Conservative Chilliwack-North MLA Heather Maahs who voted against the motion, also rejected the argument that the five votes against the motion represented a revolt against Rustad. Several Conservative voices have also framed the dispute over Brodie's tweet and the vote against the NDP motion as evidence that the party values free votes and speech in defiance of norms in other parties. 

"We are all proud members of the Conservative Party of B.C. and I'm so proud to have John Rustad as our leader, who actually gives us a voice," Maahs said. 

What does Prest make of those claims? 

"It can be certainly true that free expression and open debate are core values of our democracy, but that a party that has such diametrically opposed views being expressed within its caucus doesn't really convincingly stand for any particular thing and a leader unable to bring the party together is in danger of losing any kind of credible claims to leadership," he said. 

Political consultant Kareem Allam, founding partner of Richardson Strategy Group, said the last 24 hours have made Rustad look like the most progressive person in his caucus, which might not help him heading into the party's annual general meeting to be held in Nanaimo over the weekend. 

Allam added that he found Brodie's comments "beyond atrocious" and credited Conservative House Leader A'aliya Warbus, MLA for Chilliwack Cultus-Lake, for speaking up against Brodie. Allam was referring to a social media post from Warbus: "Inform yourself, get the latest facts, research AND talk to survivors. Questioning the narratives of people who lived and survived these atrocities, is nothing but harmful and taking us backward in reconciliation."

When asked whether her tweet responded to Brodie, Warbus said Tuesday her tweet was about reconciliation and drawing attention to survivors.

"Anything that pulls us off ... that conversation is not going to bring us forward as the people of British Columbia," she said. 

When asked whether some of the differing options are too deep to overcome for the caucus to remain cohesive, Warbus said that is up to Rustad.

"That's something that our leadership and I'm speaking specifically about, John Rustad, is going to have to take a critical look at," she said. "Those are his decisions and his calls to make and where he wants my advice on what to do about those things, he will come to me." 

Allam said Brodie's refusal to take down the tweet should have led to her firing. 

"The punchline that I think everyone's missing is that it now seems to be that Dallas Brodie is the new leader of the (Conservative Party of B.C.)," he said. The fact that Brodie's comments are allowed to stands show that Rustad's leadership has entered crisis mode, he added. 

"His coalition is falling apart right in front of him and I don't know how you put the pieces of Humpty Dumpty back together again."

Looming over these recent developments is the question of why such divergent views are allowed to co-exist in a party. 

"Ultimately, with the (Conservative Party of B.C.), we still have two parties," Prest said. One wing of the party brings together what Prest has called the "skeptics of modernity" who express themselves in different ways on issues such as climate change and Indigenous relations.

"Then, we also have the survivors of the B.C. Liberals' implosion, who are there to try to create a centre-right, business-friendly coalition looking to present an alternative to the NDP that is still very much in tune with those mainstream political understandings that those populists are in opposition to." 

Prest added that this debate did not resolve itself, even though the party won 44 seats in the last election.

"It simply moved that conversation inside that party," he said. "So I think this is going to continue to be a story line until one faction solidifies its control of the party, at least for the near term. But it is a question that lurks for any Conservative party in the current form of Canadian politics." 

Allam said Canadian conservatives have not been forgiving of leaders who lose elections and he foresees a scenario whereby the Conservative Party of B.C. could split into three factions: a party like Alberta's former Wildrose Party, a small-c conservative party, and party in the mould of B.C. United. He said conservatism as a whole has lost its bearings.

"So the (conservative) movement, broadly, is really struggling with its conviction, with its purpose, not just here in British Columbia, but internationally."